{"id":5998,"date":"2026-10-08T08:52:35","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T11:52:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/?p=5998"},"modified":"2026-10-08T08:52:35","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T11:52:35","slug":"dolar-tranquilo-y-apuesta-a-los-pesos-el-mercado-desconfia-de-la-deuda-que-vence-despues-de-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/?p=5998","title":{"rendered":"D\u00f3lar tranquilo y apuesta a los pesos: el mercado desconf\u00eda de la deuda que vence despu\u00e9s de 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"

Seg\u00fan la medici\u00f3n de expectativas que releva el Banco Central entre bancos y consultoras, el mercado proyecta un d\u00f3lar estable en los pr\u00f3ximos meses y una inflaci\u00f3n de alrededor de 21% para los pr\u00f3ximos doce meses. Ese panorama sostiene el atractivo del carry trade, la estrategia de invertir en t\u00edtulos en pesos que rinden m\u00e1s que la variaci\u00f3n del tipo de cambio. El Tesoro acompa\u00f1\u00f3 esa demanda: en las \u00faltimas licitaciones dej\u00f3 afuera los bonos que vencen despu\u00e9s de 2027 y ofreci\u00f3 sobre todo instrumentos de corto plazo.<\/p>\n

La consultora Outlier sostiene que el esquema se parece cada vez m\u00e1s a una \u00abflotaci\u00f3n sucia\u00bb, con un d\u00f3lar administrado por el Gobierno. El ritmo de suba del tipo de cambio ronda el 0,8% mensual. El oficialismo lo atribuye al super\u00e1vit comercial, de m\u00e1s de u$s2.000 millones por mes. En el mercado, en cambio, observan intervenci\u00f3n del BCRA para amortiguar los movimientos de la divisa.<\/p>\n

La cautela aparece en los bonos en d\u00f3lares. El AO27 paga una renta anual de 4,37%, mientras que el AO28, que vence ya con otro presidente, ofrece 11,9%. Para el mercado, esa brecha refleja el riesgo pol\u00edtico, y el ministro Luis Caputo suspendi\u00f3 la emisi\u00f3n del primero. Adem\u00e1s, la compra de d\u00f3lares por parte de los ahorristas sigui\u00f3 alta en agosto, con u$s2.853 millones. A la dolarizaci\u00f3n previa a las elecciones se suma la volatilidad internacional, dos factores que amenazan esa calma.<\/p>\n

Con informaci\u00f3n de iProfesional<\/a>. Nota original: \u00abEl mercado prev\u00e9 d\u00f3lar calmo por meses y el carry trade vuelve a tentar a inversores\u00bb. Imagen: iProfesional.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bancos y consultoras esperan estabilidad cambiaria y siguen apostando al carry trade, pero con una inflaci\u00f3n proyectada de 21% y se\u00f1ales de temor por el escenario electoral de 2027.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","subtitle":"","override":[{"template":"1","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"no-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_comment_section":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_paywall_metabox":{"paragraph_limit":"2","enable_premium_post":"0","enable_free_post":"0","override_paragraph_limit":"0","override_unlock_quota":"0","unlock_quota":"1","enable_preview_post":"0","enable_preview_video":"0"},"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\r\n\r\n{excerpt}\r\n\r\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"fullscreen","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[39],"tags":[492,491,490,357,408,404],"class_list":["post-5998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias","tag-bonos","tag-caputo","tag-carry-trade","tag-dolar","tag-economia-nacional","tag-inflacion"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"amp_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/611328_landscape.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5998"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5998\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6001,"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5998\/revisions\/6001"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5999"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canal8.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}